China Made ‘Serious Strategic Miscalculation’ on Iran, Insiders Say
Muted Chinese response to U.S.-Israel strikes came after multiple revisions and reflected shock, according to people familiar with the situation.
Eva Fu 3/2/2026 theepochtimes/world/china-made-serious-strategic-miscalculation-on-iran
When Western allies reacted to the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, Beijing’s response was measured.
The Chinese foreign ministry statement came seven hours after the operation began and contained just over 80 words, with the spokesperson saying Beijing is “highly concerned” while calling for “an immediate stop to the military actions.”
There was no mention of either the United States or Israel.
The statement was a “downgraded version” after multiple revisions, according to one insider familiar with the inner workings of Beijing’s diplomacy system. The highly muted tone was a reflection of shock, he and another said.
They said China’s authorities had misjudged the situation and dismissed chances of a U.S. military offensive, believing that any conflicts would stay on a rhetorical level and not touch Iran’s key power structure.
“Only until the missiles hit the ground and shook Tehran did Beijing hastily make adjustments, exposing how the decision makers had underestimated the risks,” one of them told The Epoch Times.
That led to Chinese authorities scrambling to respond.
The initial draft contained wording that directly criticized Israel and the United States, but that was “deleted line by line during the internal meeting deliberations,” the source said, and the eventual principle they reached was “not to touch the United States and Israel.”
Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, confirmed on March 1 that they got no advance notice about the strikes.
Iran has been a strategic partner for China, providing discounted oil while helping Beijing expand its influence in the Middle East. The two signed a 25-year economic and security partnership in 2021, just as China became Iran’s top trading partner for both import and export.
While China’s diplomatic officials had conducted a comprehensive assessment on Iran prior to the strikes, part of that had relied on the framework used in the past few decades, according to another insider.
The logic goes that a large-scale military operation is unlikely because Iran had never faced full-sized kinetic attacks from the United States despite consistent military threats, he said. And because of that, he added, Beijing has evacuated fewer diplomatic personnel than from Venezuela around the Caracas raid.
“This is a serious strategic miscalculation,” he told The Epoch Times. “And no one right now dares to bring it up.”
The news of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei’s death a day later prompted Beijing’s condemnation, with Mao calling it a violation of international law.
“From the view of the Chinese Communist Party, to have an ‘old friend’ disappearing in this world in such a fashion naturally leads to fears,” China affairs analyst Li Linyi told The Epoch Times. “The Chinese officials would be wondering if such a thing could happen to them.”
For the most part, Beijing is still taking a wait-and-see approach, analysts said.
“What the Chinese Communist Party actually cares about here is not the survival of the Iranian regime. It’s about how to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States,” said a Chinese scholar, who asked for anonymity for safety fears.
He told The Epoch Times that U.S. President Donald Trump is meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping soon, and their talks will involve issues concerning Beijing’s core interests, such as trade, technology restrictions, and economic sanctions.
“Under this calculus, a so-called ‘strategic partner’ can be set aside anytime.”
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Shao Rong contributed to this report.
Eva Fu Reporter
Eva Fu is an award-winning, New York-based journalist for The Epoch Times focusing on U.S. politics, U.S.-China relations, religious freedom, and human rights. Contact Eva at eva.fu@epochtimes.com